{"id":43720,"date":"2023-10-09T11:39:29","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T11:39:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/histarmar.net\/?p=43720"},"modified":"2023-10-09T11:39:29","modified_gmt":"2023-10-09T11:39:29","slug":"rising-costs-competition-leave-paint-sector-in-need-of-fresh-coat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/histarmar.net\/business\/rising-costs-competition-leave-paint-sector-in-need-of-fresh-coat\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising costs, competition leave paint sector in need of fresh coat"},"content":{"rendered":"
Festival season may add vibrant strokes to volumes, but margins remain a blank canvas.<\/strong><\/p>\n Paint companies have lagged behind their consumer peers in the past year.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period.<\/p>\n Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector’s sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.<\/p>\n The entry of new players and the necessity for additional advertising investment are anticipated to impact incumbent players’ profitability.<\/p>\n Worries about slowing volumes and a sharp increase in crude oil prices have intensified the headwinds facing the sector.<\/p>\n Therefore, market watchers will closely monitor margin movements in the July-September quarter, as well as the trajectory of volume growth.<\/p>\n In the April-June quarter, paint majors delivered an impressive double-digit volume growth performance compared to the previous year.<\/p>\n Asian Paints, the market leader, reported a 10 per cent growth in the decorative paint segment, while Berger Paints saw a 12.7 per cent increase.<\/p>\n Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities Research, led by Jaykumar Doshi, note that after the double-digit growth in the first quarter, demand for decorative paints in the current quarter has been relatively subdued.<\/p>\n “We estimate industry volume and value growth to be 5-6 per cent and 3-4 per cent, respectively, for the July-September quarter,” they add.<\/p>\n ICICI Securities also predicts low-to-mid-single-digit volume growth for the sector in July and August this year.<\/p>\n Dealers are anticipating a strong September and October, thanks to a favourable base and a delayed Diwali in 2023, according to analysts at the brokerage, led by Manoj Menon.<\/p>\n Looking ahead, the sector faces two key challenges.<\/p>\n First, there’s concern about the surge in crude oil prices and its impact on raw material costs for the listed majors.<\/p>\n Second, Grasim’s paint brand, Birla Opus, is set to launch by the end of the current financial year (2023-24).<\/p>\n Brent crude oil prices, currently trading at $94 per barrel, have risen by 26 per cent over the past three months.<\/p>\n Titanium dioxide, a crucial raw material for paint companies, is a derivative of crude oil, so its rising prices will make raw materials more expensive.<\/p>\n Approximately 50-60 per cent of the raw material costs for paint makers come from crude oil.<\/p>\n In a recent report, Motilal Oswal Research highlighted that crude oil prices have surged, surpassing $90 per barrel, reaching their highest level in nearly nine months.<\/p>\n This increase comes as Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to prolong their supply reduction.<\/p>\n Kotak Institutional Equities Research points out that crude oil prices in rupee terms have risen by about 10 per cent sequentially in the second quarter, at a time when the competitive landscape is pushing for higher rebates and discounts.<\/p>\n The brokerage expects high paint input commodity prices to exert some pressure on the margins of paint companies.<\/p>\n While lower input costs and strong operating performance helped Asian Paints report a 523-basis point (bp) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) jump in gross margins to 42.9 per cent and a 502-bp Y-o-Y improvement in operating profit margins to 23.1 per cent in the June quarter, margin expansion on a sequential basis could be challenging (with little impact on a Y-o-Y basis).<\/p>\n Grasim’s entry into the Rs 70,000 crore paint sector in the country with the brand Birla Opus could pose a challenge to the incumbents, given its substantial investment of Rs 10,000 crore and the strength of its existing distribution network.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Brokerages hold mixed views on the impact that the large entrant will have on the incumbents.<\/p>\n While Nuvama Research suggests that Grasim is likely to be a serious challenger, they highlight that decorative paint leaders Asian Paints and Berger Paints have maintained double-digit volume growth in most years despite competition from several domestic and international players entering India’s paint market with aggressive advertising spending and product innovation.<\/p>\n Analysts at the brokerage, led by Abneesh Roy, believe that their ability to withstand competition and grow at a robust pace reflects multiple entry barriers in the sector.<\/p>\n Considering Grasim is gunning for the no. 2 slot in the paint sector, Kotak Institutional Equities Research believes that Berger Paints is more vulnerable than Asian Paints to Grasim’s entry.<\/p>\n The new entrant is likely to avoid a head-on battle with Asian Paints and focus on displacing the top two to four brands in dealer outlets.<\/p>\n Additionally, Asian Paints’ strength in adjacencies such as waterproofing and home décor could help it defend market share better in large retail outlets (mega\/platinum dealers), according to the brokerage.<\/p>\n