Biden's families plan would cost $700 billion more than projected, new study says

  • Biden's American Families Plan, which officials priced at $1.8 trillion, would actually cost American taxpayers $2.5 trillion, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model.
  • The university also said that the totality of current revenue-generating proposals to help pay for the bill would fall short at $1.3 trillion.
  • The Wharton study found that the American Families Plan would increase government debt by almost 5% by 2050 and decrease GDP by 0.4%.
  • The findings could complicate Biden's bid for legislation that would channel hundreds of billions of dollars to child care, education and health care.

President Joe Biden's American Families Plan would cost far more than the White House estimates, and it would increase government debt while decreasing GDP, according to a study released Wednesday.

The administration's latest stimulus plan, which officials priced at $1.8 trillion, would actually cost American taxpayers $2.5 trillion over the 10-year budget window, about $700 billion more than the White House's estimate, the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated.

The school explained that the sizable difference in headline cost projections is thanks to a disagreement over how much the plan's tax credits, as well as the universal pre-K and free community college provisions, would require.

Meanwhile, the study said that Biden's proposed revenue-raising procedures would fail to drum up the funds to cover the cost of the expansive stimulus. Wharton said that the totality of current revenue-generating proposals to help pay for the bill would fall short at $1.3 trillion.

The study broke down how much each of Biden's revenue-raising proposals would add to baseline revenues over a 10-year period:

  • Additional funding proposed for the Internal Revenue Service to enhance its ability to audit and crack down on tax evaders would generate an additional $480 billion.
  • Raising the top rate on ordinary income to 39.6% would add $111 billion.
  • Taxing unrealized gains above $1 million at death, taxing long-term capital gains and preferred dividends at ordinary rates for filers making more than $1 million and taxing carried interest at ordinary rates would collectively raise $376 billion.

The Wharton study found that the American Families Plan would increase government debt by almost 5% by 2050 and decrease GDP by 0.4%, as the effects from larger debt on the economy outweigh the productivity gains associated with the new spending programs.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

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The findings could complicate the president's bid to enact a sweeping piece of legislation that, if passed, would channel hundreds of billions of dollars to child care, education and health care.

Among its many provisions, the Biden proposal seeks to fund universal preschool, a federal paid leave program, efforts to make child care more affordable and free community college for all. The White House said the $1.8 trillion would be split between $1 trillion in spending and $800 billion in tax credits.

As another multitrillion-dollar piece of legislation, the administration says it plans to pay for the American Families Plan with new taxes on high-income households and by increasing IRS enforcement.

He would like to raise the top rate on income taxes to 39.6% from 37%. Further, Biden is proposing a hike to the long-term capital gains rate to 39.6%. Currently, the top rate on those gains is 20%. The increase would apply to households making over $1 million.

Even before the Wharton study, the package faced many more hurdles than Biden's American Jobs Plan, a $2.2 trillion physical infrastructure proposal.

While Republicans have a litany of problems with Biden's infrastructure plan, they have expressed far less interest in additional spending for education, child care and paid leave than they have for building roads and bridges.

The GOP has also protested against several of the tax proposals included in Biden's Families and Jobs plans, including an increase to the corporate, income and capital gains tax rates.

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