Emerging markets were given a fresh set of growth forecasts from Fitch Ratings this week, further underscoring how the coronavirus pandemic is splitting developing nations up between opportunities and risks.
Fitch raised its economic growth forecast for China, while cutting predictions for South Africa and India. Other examples of the divergence among developing nations can be seen across a wide spectrum of economic and market metrics including projections for government debt levels, returns for bond investors, and the proportion of the population infected by the virus.
The following four charts showcase a range of ways in which the fortunes of emerging economies are differing in the face of the crisis:
The impact of the virus on economic growth was highlighted by the latest GDP outlook revisions by Fitch. The company raised its forecast for China’s growth this year to 2.7% from the June prediction of 1.2%, citing the country’s success in containing the pandemic. It also raised estimates for Brazil, Russia and Turkey, while still foreseeing contractions in all three. On the other hand, Fitch forecast a deeper slump in India, projecting GDP to shrink 10.5% versus its previous estimate of 5%.
75,809 in IndiaMost new cases today
-2% Change in MSCI World Index of global stocks since Wuhan lockdown, Jan. 23
-1.063 Change in U.S. treasury bond yield since Wuhan lockdown, Jan. 23
5.3% Global GDP Tracker (annualized), Aug.