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‘Recession risk has risen,’ Goldman says — but there's a bright spot in the economy
Not falling into recession will be a ‘challenge’: Former EY Global CEO
Former EY Global Chairman and CEO Mark Weinberger argues that Americans are facing ‘unprecedented inflation.’
The risks of a recession are growing, according to Goldman Sachs economists.
In a Monday analyst note, Goldman strategists led by Jan Hatzius said the probability of an economic downturn within the next 24 months is 38%. While that forecast is lower than some of their Wall Street peers, the analysts admitted risks to the outlook have grown over the past month.
"Recession risk has risen," Hatzius wrote. "The financial health of the private sector may ultimately determine whether policy tightening will tilt the economy into a downturn."
FED HOPES TO ENGINEER SOFT LANDING, BUT HISTORY SHOWS IT WON'T BE EASY
But there is a bright spot in the economy, according to the Goldman analysts: Strong consumer demand, which could help the Federal Reserve to engineer a so-called soft landing — the elusive sweet spot between curbing demand enough to cool inflation without actually triggering a recession.