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Goldman says Ukraine-Russia war could trigger US economic recession
Fed cannot allow Russia-Ukraine to impact rate hikes: Polcari
SlateStone Wealth chief market strategist Ken Polcari and Tocqueville Asset Management portfolio manager John Petrides discuss if geopolitical events will prevent the Fed from raising interest rates on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
Goldman Sachs economists warned the probability of the U.S. economy plunging into a recession in the next year has risen dramatically in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The economists, led by Jan Hatzius, cut their forecast for economic growth this year to 1.75% from 2.0% and noted that such an outlook means there is a "higher risk" of about 20% to 35% that the U.S. enters a recession over the next year.
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"While our baseline forecast assumes that further service sector reopening and spending from excess savings will keep real GDP growth positive in the coming quarters, uncertainty around the outlook is higher than normal," they wrote in the Thursday analyst note. "We view the risks of a recession as broadly in line with the 20-35% odds currently implied by models based on the slope of the yield curve."